November 11 Forecast Comment

sitting here at the airport ......just checking a trade I made the other night on impulse...and as I can tell it hit profit...For some reason, and I did not list it as a pick, I took the usd/jpy short.(Wed night trades est) So on that night I had 3 trades going, 2 of which hit within the hour,(my recommendations) and the usd/jpy which as I can tell lingered for a day or 2.

These are the types of trades that get you into trouble. I am as much a victim of stupidity as the next guy. And there are ways to avoid this. But I have identified that in my trading, sometimes the worst thing that can happen to me is hitting target in the first few hours of trading.

I try never to compare the Forex to gambling. I hate it and am insulted when someone makes that comment.

But I would like to make an analogy. As it does have some merit if you have ever been to a Casino before. Say you go to Vegas, or on a cruise, or someplace where you have to take the time to actually gamble. Have you ever experienced winning your goals in the first hour of say a planned 4 or more hour casino journey? What are you then supposed to do. Watch your friends/husband/wife play? Go sit at the bar and wait? How hard is that. What usually happens is you jump right back in and probably lose your winnings and stake money!

My achilles heal is trading right after a trade turns profitable in a blink of an eye. I think, hey, that was easy. BIG MISTAKE.

I have identified in my trading that I trade best when I stick to my plan and be clinical. My plan consists of picking 1 or 2 trades a Forecast cycle. Set my profit target, milk out what I can , and then get out and stay out until either I cash out, or get stopped out. Then I regroup and wait for the next day's Forecast.

I am not telling you that you should trade this way. This is my way. But what you need to do is identify your weakness (mine is impulse trading outside of my plan). identifying your weakness is probably the single most important thing you can do when developing your trading plan.

I used to over trade, pyramid trade (piling into a position to try and offset a loss), impulse trade (see something happening in a chart that is really just a blip etc).
And for me, now that I am manning this blog and doing the Forecasts my face is in front of charts for many hours every day. What I normally do is just take a peak at my open trades, and not try and seek out new trades. This is how I avoid my "weakness".

Tough to do, and sometimes I fall off the wagon and make an impulse trade. I was lucky this time. I have found that with impulse trades I hang onto them longer than I should if they go south, and they get me into trouble most times.

Knowing your weakness can be your strength in the Forex.

 

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