Forecast Comments November 5
There is that old adage that says good luck is the residue of hard work (or words to that effect). But in the Forex , many, many, many times when you are learning the biz, luck comes before the hard work. I feel the curse of a new trader is to start in on the middle of a trend and start picking off winning trades like fish in a barrel. You think it is easy and figure it can never end. Then in the blink of an eye disaster strikes and you become a statistic.
For those of you who take the time to read the ramblings of this trader your probably saying.." Nope, not me , I am different!"
Or you might be saying "Yikes! do I need this grief?"
So how do you prevent being a statistic? You need to simplify and do away with the information overload. Once you do that, you can take the training wheels off and really ride the Forex.
So this simplification is easier said than done. If you trade the news, you had FOMC and NFP's last week, this week there will be BOE and Euro Zone statements etc, you have oil going up one day, US equities up followed by Asian markets down etc..How do you sift through all of this and make a trade that won't blow up on you.
The NFP's came out double the forecast on Friday. In the past, the euro and pound would have tanked, and the usd/jpy would have gone through the roof. Not Friday.
What do "they" know, that "we" don't. I have given up trying to figure out that one. And I have given up spending my time bleary eyed reading every piece of info out there.
This is how I have simplified my trading life both in lifestyle and strategy
1) My Strategy consists of looking at the currencies in the forecast focusing on my 2 preferred pairs first . I check the same info that you are given. I then look at my Daily Chart set-up to visualize (what is going on over time).I will give a thumbs up if the moving averages are moving well in tandem and not slapping each other. I make a quick mental note of how many times in a row the Forecast hit ( it hits if it took a significant chunk out of the pip potential).. I also make a mental note how many days in a row the pair has trended. (3 or 4 I get cautious)
If my preferred pairs are not the best picks for the evening I look for one that might be and apply the above.
I then look at any event risks, see what is happening on a 15 minute chart, and if it is not moving against me make my trade, set my profit and walk away and get on with life.
I am fortunate to be on or near a computer much of the time and will just glance every once and a while (although, many times I cash out while asleep for the evening) to see if i can put a trailing stop on a profitable position.
2) As for paying attention to the news, I listen to biz reports on the radio, might read a paper, glance at a few blogs, read my site, but only if it does not interfere with a normal life or activity.
That's it. Very simple, and for me it has cleared the clutter from my brain. Develop a strategy that is simple and easy to follow.
Remember we are "retail traders" and have forces always working against us so be disciplined and technical.



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