October 17 Forecast Comments
Good Luck
Stupidity, gut , emotion and demo accounts....to me these are all intertwined.
You may have gathered by now that what I offer is not a signal service that says "buy this here and sell this there". What I am is a service that offers you the opportunity to take advantage of data and experience crunching to free you up to make a calculated decision on every trade you make. Remember, on any given day, with a lackluster attitude even the smallest trade can wipe you out. Been there, done that, got the T-shirt, and don't want the same to happen to you.
Now back to my first line. There is a role for demo accounts, but I must stress that the one thing that a demo account does not provide for you is the true gut kick that you get when you take a huge loss, or the euphoria you feel with a windfall trade.
Yet these are the two emotions that kill you in the real world.
In my humble opinion you have to be clinical and machine like when trading. As soon as you can come to grips that you must lose sometimes, you will be freed up to take the emotionless, surgical approach to trading.
So where does the demo account come into play if it can't mimic the real world emotion. For me it is quite simple. Apart from being a strategy tester, it is an "emotionless" trainer. Although I try very hard to think of demo money as real money, it is very difficult to do. So if I feel I don't need emotion in the real world, then through practice in demos, I try and limit emotions so I can trade without them live.
Now gut and stupidity play a valid role in demo accounts also. Try not to make this a habit though. On the stupid side, I will often do what I feel is a stupid trade, just to get it out of my system. This could be not taking profit when I should, not stopping out when I should, trading more than I should etc. I need to see that on a turn of a dime the Forex can turn against you. And this reinforces itself and prepares me in my real trading.
Gut is a real problem for traders. How many times have you said, "oh, I knew it", or "I knew I should not have!'? However when you act on your gut 9 times out of 10 you are wrong. Remember you are always right when your gut tells you something and you don't act on it, and always wrong when your gut tells you something and you do act on it!
So what to do? Be disciplined, clinical, don't listen to your gut, do stupid things (only in demos), feel no emotion, and above all stick to your plan. This is what I use demos for.



Think I need to maybe go in the confession box!
After receiving Strong Buy Signal on 15 Oct (16th for me!), I went long on the Euro at 1.4208 for 41 pips to 1.4249. My T/P level was not hit, so waited for forecast 16 Oct (17th for me!).
To my surprise, forecast had changed from Strong Buy to Weak Sell.
What do you do?
I went with my gut and stayed in the trade, finally exited this morning at 01:26 GMT @ 1.4200 for -8 pips, which was again, against my instincts and more importantly against the forecast.
Again today, forecast is a weak sell, but Euro is presently at 1.4229 +29 pips on where I exited. This shows, my gut was right to go against the forecasts and i should have stayed in - or was it?
Have I done the right thing by holding onto this trade against the forecast prediction? The fact I was able to recover to -8 pips as opposed to -35 pips which is where the trade was when the forecast signal change was issued, would suggest so
I am in demo, it's not real money. The transition to live is going to be very, very difficult for me. Would I have done the same thing with real cash? Would I be happy with a -35 pip trade?
I am still learning and I think I should have learned something here. But I can't find it
On a seperate note and a follow up to my post of last week, I am now trading a pick of the day pair (sorry Mark
Trade 1: 15/10 T/P @ 20 pips on loonie + 20 Pips Total
Trade 2: 16/10 Manual Exit @ -35 pips on euro - 15 pips Total
Trade 3: 17/10 T/P @ 22 pips on usd/jpy (don't know nickname!) + 7 Total
Trade 4: 18/10 short on usd/jpy @ 116.47 (currency going nowhere at present 116.46 at time of writing)
I will post periodically to advise how this strategy is going...
All the best,
Darren
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