October 3 Forecast Comments

Trading with the Forecasts, or for that matter Forex trading in general requires acceptance of risk.

There is a reason why every broker, every Forex Guru, every Forex book comes with a disclaimer. The Forex is fast action, fast paced, brutal and takes no prisoners.
In a previous post I discussed that the minute you put real money in your brokerage account you should accept the possibility you will never see that money again.

Do you think that way in Real Estate, stock trading, mutual funds? Probably not.Yet if there ever was a "boulevard of broken dreams" the Forex paves this boulevard with overwhelmed traders who either never found, or lost their way.

So then why bother? Because the Forex can be tamed if, first and foremost, you push hard, and then even harder.

What do I mean? It is a mindset. You can not be timid or in panic mode when you trade.

When I trade, (and my strategy consists of using the forecasts, visualizing with my Daily Charts, assessing event risks, and then forming a conclusion based on all the chaos that surrounds you when you immerse yourself in the Forex) I assume the responsibility that my trade can go south on me. And at the very least it will bring me some pain before it brings me pleasure. And I enter all of my trades the same way.

Based on the stupid things that I used to do when I was new I have developed rules that I trade by. In fact I can not even relate to the way I used to trade.

So what are these rules you may ask. I'll tell you in a moment .
In the beginning, you will soon learn, if you survive, that you don't know what you do not know. In the beginning you are wrapped up not only in learning the the basics of executing a trade, but charts, graphs, candlesticks, resistance, fibonacci, elliott wave theories, signal services, subscriptions, you name it...Then you place a trade in a demo account, and you watch as one of 3 things happens..nothing, drops like a rock, or shoots like a rocket. And each one of these events will form a different mindset that will linger on with you for a long, long, time.

Say, you make a great profit. Then you fall into this false sense of security where you feel you can do no wrong. Depending on the timing in the market, you may be able to link together a whole series of great trades, and now you are a superstar. Then you go to bed one night thinking how hot you are and wake up to find that some bank makes a surprise interest rate drop or hike, and you get wiped out.

What if your first trade is a dog. Then you are branded with the fear of trading for a long time. And with this fear you make bad trade after bad trade and you slither away into the Forex wastelands.

You have to treat the Forex with a level of respect, and through knowledge gain an edge. You need to learn your broker software, relationships between currency pairs, significant monthly event risks, and where possible have a mentor, as it is very difficult to do this alone.
In demo accounts you need to trade like it is real money and experience getting wiped out, and making windfall profits. And then, with a level head, after you have a reasonable amount of trading time (months, not years) develop a clear thinking disciplined winning strategy . Once this strategy gives you 2 or 3 months straight of profit (no matter how small) then and only then do you use real money.

So my rules.
1) Do not be underfunded when I trade and be able survive a significant pip drop that will not wipe me out
2) Understand that my money, when it is not under my pillow is at risk, no matter how effective your strategy is
3) Accept that a trade will go south sometimes right away but have the conviction to ride it out it .
4) Develop a stop loss strategy that does not stop you out of profitable trades.
5) Milk out maximum profits by using trailing stops once your profit target is hit.
6) Do not feel you always have to have a trade in the market.
7) Do not let trading interfere with your life.
8) Identify when you have done something stupid, and try not to do it again. Really hard to do.

Many of you don't realize this yet, but you have an environment right before your eyes that can eliminate much of the pain in the beginning. Unfortunately we are probably another piece of the clutter that overwhelms. Part of that "you don't know, what you do not know" scenario.

 

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Comments

  • 10/4/2007 12:37 AM Darren wrote:
    I can relate to "you don't know, what you do not know"...

    As a newbie, there is both fear and excitement in the forecasts.

    Take yesterday's trade as an example: After checking charts and checking my personal rules, I went short on the EUR/USD @ 1.4152. As normal, as soon as I got into the trade it started to move against the forecast. As my pip targets are small (33), panic set in at -22 pips!

    I have a very large S/L of 50 pips over/under forecasted high/low, so was confident I would not be stopped out.

    I went to bed and the trade was -30 pips or so. I put a T/P at 1.4119 and it was hit whilst I was in bed. In hindsight, I would have been better putting a trailing S/L and rode the trade further into profit...

    Anyway, my point is this (yeah, there is one!) if I had not had the info. presented to me in the forecast and knowing there was no major news announcement due, would I have had the confidence to go to bed with an open trade?

    Also with regards to this morning's blog entry, I for one see Mark as a 'mentor'. As such, to aid my training, I would really like Mark (if possible) to advise which trade(s) he is taking on any given day. Why he took that trade. I think we can make our own decisions with regards to S/L, Trail S/L and/or T/P, but it would be invaluable information to us newbies (I feel), if we could understand why Mark makes the decisions he does...

    Any thoughts?
    Reply to this
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