September 23 Forecast Comments
I am trading like the other shoe is about to drop. Right now, the markets are event driven. It is at these times that you have to stay on your toes and really pick your trades wisely. Just when you think everything is going along fine ...BAMMM, the you know what can hit the fan.
We will be heading into a whole flurry of economic data which will add to the mix. And these are the times when the forecasts can really shine. (although I must say, during these choppy trading days we have done pretty good.)
My strategy these days is to be mercenary and surgical. Get in and get out. Err on the side of the strong strength indicator.
Investors have a very short memory. There are those that believe the events that happened in August are over. Yet from what I gather, they could very well be the beginning of something far more painful.
I was reading an interesting article on hedge funds. It was saying that possibly 4,000 of America's 9,000 or so hedge funds could eventually go under. We should see what pans out after Sept 30 which is a key redemption date for money held in hedge funds.
In a previous post I mentioned that I use the gbp/jpy as a canary in a coal mine for me. If you look at the daily charts, since August it has been in a sideways pattern. That sucker normally is either screaming up or screaming down, and it is taking its cues from the equity markets now. Draw a line along the lowest low, and along the highest high since the beginning of this pattern, and until one of those lines break, the directions of the markets will remain anyone's guess.
As I mentioned before, our jobs as 4XMen is to preserve and cautiously build capital during these unsure times and be ready to pile on when a definitive direction is established.
Chip away, build your accounts, be safe and patient, and become intimate with your chosen currency pairs. Don't trade them all except to experiment. Be able to quote your pair on any given day and have a point of reference at least 6 months back to know what the lowest low and highest high was for that pair. And watch the strength indicator. Is it weakening staying the same etc. We are still in choppy trading seas.



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