September 4 Forecast Comments

So we start what I hope will be a month where we can get out of this sideways pattern we have been in since the meltdown. September historically can be a very volatile month in the stock markets. As the Forex has been taking cues from equities lately we should see some mirroring particularly in the yen pairs.

My "30 day Discipline" journey demo is entering its third day of trading. And as I sit here waiting for my data compilation I wonder which way if any we will fly this evening. As I am only looking for a medium-strong to strong strength position for my pair (gbp/usd), I know I may not get it every evening. And this is where the discipline comes in. To be successful in trading it is not necessary to be in the markets every day.

Which brings me to my next point. I lay out 8 currency pairs forecasts. Why would the "Trading Discipline" journey not allow me to pick the best currency pair with the best profit potential? Very simply, because if you break any rule that you set out for yourself in a trading strategy, you have just established a trading style that will linger with you for a long time and eventually wipe you out. My trading strategy for this challenge is the same currency pair traded only once per day. (see previous posts)

I find it very difficult to stay out of the market after I have had a winning trade. Having multiple trades open at one time with different currency pairs combine to make for a disaster. You can quickly lose focus and lose the value of money and turn winners into loser in a heartbeat.

I find it very difficult to not pile into a losing trade to try and average out a better position to limit my losses. It is so easy to get married to a trade and think it will come back from a loss. If you would not buy into the position at the losing rate, then you should not buy into it to save a losing trade.

Develop your strategy by handling the most important factor right in the beginning...Discipline.. It is the hardest commodity to develop, and the easiest to lose. And if you lose it, you lose money. Then they are both even harder to get back. Sure, feel free to experiment with scenarios ( I always buy all the currencies in a demo account to see how far I can stretch the forecasts), but I do this for educational purposes and not to develop a trading style.

You have your trading style developed when you can have a few consecutive months in a row with a profit. Then you only tweak it in a demo account, and only change to your new style when you have accomplished a few consecutive months in a row with a profit.

Time flies in the Forex world. Building good habits in the front end will stand you well.

 

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